Asia Finance 2020

Asia is getting richer, not only absolutely but relatively. Over the last decade, Asia increased its share of global GDP from 24% to 31%. Its vast population is increasingly urban and increasingly middle class.

With both Europe and the US struggling to bounce back from the deep recession triggered by the financial crisis, the world is again looking towards Asia as the engine of growth. However, Asia is also at a crossroads. It needs to shift from its current “old industrial” export-driven model towards a new economic model – one that is focused on domestic consumption and is more socially just and environmentally sustainable.

The Asian financial sector will need to facilitate this transformation in the real economy. Alas, it is currently ill-suited to playing this role. The Asian financial sector is dominated by short-term bank lending; it suffers from shallow capital markets and a paucity of “real money” long-term investors, such as insurers and pension funds; and it lacks the financial data, credit expertise and incentives required to lend to small firms or innovative start-ups.

In short, the Asian financial system is adapted to the “old industrial” real economy it has been serving. For Asian economies to modernize, the financial system must modernize too. This joint report with the Fung Global Institute describes the shortcomings of the current financial system and makes recommendations for Asian policy makers. Among other things, they should co-ordinate their policies to create an efficient and better integrated financial sector and ensure the “Asian voice” is heard at the global table, increase transparency to reduce information asymmetries and facilitate the transition towards an increasingly mobile world by ensuring safety, security and efficiency of local retail payment systems. We also argue for Asian central bank to create targeted financing back-stop facilities to support SMEs and trade as well as tax incentives to further encourage equity and other long-term funding.

亚洲的财富水平在绝对规模和全球相对地位方面均不断上升。在过去的十年期间，亚洲经济在全球GDP总量中的占比从24%上升至31%。财富增长的同时，亚洲庞大人口城镇化趋势日益显著，中产阶级群体不断壮大。

本报告阐述了亚洲金融体系目前存在的缺陷和不足，并在此基础上为亚洲决策者提出了相关建议。建议内容包括：通过政策协调来创造一个高效率和区域一体化的金融体系，通过提高透明度来降低信息不对称，通过确保本地支付系统的安全性和效率促进向移动时代的过渡，我们还呼吁亚洲各国中央银行建立目标明确的融资扶助计划，支持中小企业和贸易发展，并通过税收激励政策，进一步鼓励股权融资及其他长期融资。

如果亚洲金融业实施上述现代化行动方案，我们预测亚洲经济三大增长支柱（中小企业、基础设施建设和进出口贸易）可望拉动GDP年化增速提高0.5%以上，同时促使亚洲金融业的市值规模增加2万亿美元。